Forecasting weather across Tennessee, Virginia, and the Carolinas is uniquely challenging. Within just a few hundred miles, the landscape shifts from the Appalachian Mountains to rolling piedmont and coastal plains, creating sharp differences in temperature, precipitation, wind, and storm behavior.
Weatherstem Across the Region
Weatherstem currently operates more than 80 stations across Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, with additional stations coming online soon. Existing sites include the University of Virginia, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt University, UNC, NC State, Bank of America Stadium, and a wide range of local schools, emergency operations centers, fire departments, and businesses.
Expansion continues across the region, with Middle Tennessee State University, the Knoxville Smokies, and Liberty University joining the network in the coming months. Each new station adds valuable coverage in a region where weather conditions can change significantly over short distances.
Weatherstem systems collect live weather data every eight-tenths of a second. From the moment a station comes online, its data is automatically stored, creating a continuous record that supports both real-time situational awareness and long-term analysis. Stations also provide live and historical lightning data, with customizable alerts that can notify users of lightning and many other weather conditions.
Weather Hazards Across the Region
Communities across Tennessee, Virginia, and the Carolinas regularly experience a wide range of weather hazards, including:
- Winter precipitation and extreme cold
- Severe storms and tornadoes
- Summer thunderstorms and lightning
- Extreme heat
- Tropical systems
Each of these hazards presents different forecasting challenges depending on location, season, and terrain:
Winter Weather: Big Swings, Big Impacts
Winter weather is one of the hazards that tends to test everything at once in this region. Impacts can look very different depending on where you are, largely due to elevation and terrain.
In North Carolina, for example, average annual snowfall in the southern part of the state is only around one inch, while the mountainous northwest can receive more than two feet in a typical year. South Carolina shows a similar pattern, with relatively low snowfall across much of the state until you reach the northwestern counties. In Tennessee, higher snowfall amounts are more common in the eastern part of the state, while Virginia typically sees its highest averages in the western mountains and much lower amounts along the coast. Even within a single state, winter weather impacts can vary dramatically.
One of the advantages of having a Weatherstem camera and weather station is the ability to see how these events actually unfold at a specific location. During a winter weather event from January 24 through January 26 at Vanderbilt University, 1.4 inches of sleet and snow fell. Temperatures then briefly increased, resulting in about half an inch of freezing rain, before much colder air moved in. Over just 48 hours, temperatures swung by 31 degrees. Having both real-time data and camera imagery made it easier to track those rapid changes as they happened and to review them afterward.
Another example came from Carova Beach on North Carolina’s Outer Banks between January 31 and February 1, 2026. The Weatherstem station there recorded wind gusts up to 42 miles per hour and close to 10 inches of snow. Archived camera footage showed winds picking up overnight, providing valuable visual context to pair with the measured data. That ability to combine imagery with observations is especially useful for situational awareness, documentation, and post-event analysis. All of this data, including camera footage, is automatically saved from the moment a station comes online.
Severe Storms and Tornadoes
Severe weather across this region most often peaks in the spring, a pattern clearly reflected in tornado reports from the past decade. While tornadoes are only one type of severe weather, they serve as a useful proxy for identifying when the broader severe season is most active.
In Virginia, tornado activity typically peaks in April and May, with a secondary increase from August through October driven by tropical systems. In fact, Virginia’s largest tornado outbreak on record occurred on September 17, 2004, associated with Hurricane Ivan. North Carolina and South Carolina show a similar pattern, with a primary spring peak and another uptick during hurricane season in late summer and early fall.
Tennessee’s severe weather season often begins a bit earlier, with activity increasing in March. In recent years, however, the winter months have shown a noticeable rise in severe weather, largely tied to warmer winters. One notable benefit of the colder, snowier conditions experienced recently is that severe weather activity has remained relatively low so far this year, with only four severe watches issued—all tornado watches.
Weatherstem stations across the region capture how these severe events play out on the ground. On February 16, 2025, stations in the Charlotte area recorded multiple wind gusts near 60 mph as several rounds of storms moved through. Interestingly, rainfall rates were not particularly extreme, peaking at about 1.5 inches per hour.
By contrast, a more classic springtime severe weather event occurred on May 26, 2024, in Charlottesville. Daytime heating provided energy for storms that moved through during the evening hours. Rainfall rates exceeded 11 inches per hour, a much higher intensity that aligns with the warmer, more unstable conditions typical of late spring.
Thunderstorms and Lightning
Lightning activity varies widely across Tennessee, Virginia, and the Carolinas, much like winter weather. Coastal South Carolina and western Tennessee tend to experience higher lightning frequencies, while activity is generally lower in the Appalachian Mountains.
Despite these regional differences, lightning remains a serious hazard nationwide. On average, about 20 people are killed by lightning each year in the United States, with hundreds more injured. Most of these incidents occur during the summer months, when outdoor activity is at its peak.
A stark reminder of how quickly lightning can become a public safety issue occurred June 24, 2025 at Dominion Beach Park on Lake Murray in South Carolina. A lightning strike hit a metal buoy cable in the water, injuring 20 people. The incident highlights an important reality of lightning safety: a strike does not need to hit a person directly to cause harm.
The Weatherstem practical lightning assistant (PLA) provides a simple system to alert to the dangers of lightning. The different colors visible in the lightning data represent different types of lightning strikes, and each strike is time-matched to when it occurred. This pairing of visualization and timing provides valuable context for understanding storm behavior as it unfolds. Below are two examples from Wake Forest and Clemson showing storms moving through on the time lapse and the corresponding lightning strikes on the PLA:
Beyond visualization, the primary benefit of the Practical Lightning Assistant is situational awareness. Users can set up automatic alerts whenever lightning is detected within a defined area, allowing for faster awareness and response. Importantly, this lightning data is decoupled from the local weather station and is sourced directly from the National Lightning Detection Network. That means lightning can be reliably detected even when storms are nearby but not directly overhead.
In addition to real-time alerts, users also have access to historical lightning data. This makes it easier to review past events, support documentation, and inform planning decisions, whether for outdoor venues, schools, or large events.
Hurricanes and Tropical Systems
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was active by the numbers, with 13 named storms, five hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and three Category 5 storms. Fortunately, only one system made landfall in the United States. Tropical Storm Chantal impacted the Carolinas in early July, producing notable wind and rainfall despite never reaching hurricane strength.
During Chantal, Weatherstem’s Myrtle Beach station recorded peak wind gusts of 54 mph, with several rounds of heavy rain moving through the area. Elsewhere in the region, rainfall totals reached nearly 13 inches in Pittsboro, North Carolina, highlighting how even weaker tropical systems can create significant inland flooding concerns.
In 2024, Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend, but some of its most impactful weather was felt well inland. In Boone, North Carolina, a Weatherstem station recorded wind gusts near 40 mph, with rain rates ranging from about 1 inch per hour to as high as 6 inches per hour before the station ultimately lost power. This example underscores how terrain and storm structure can amplify impacts far from the coast.
Looking further back, the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season brought Hurricane Isaias through eastern North Carolina. In Wilmington, the Weatherstem station measured wind gusts up to 61 mph and peak rain rates of 5.8 inches per hour as the storm moved through the area.
One of the most memorable inland-impact events came from Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Although Matthew barely made landfall along the South Carolina coast, it produced prolonged periods of heavy rain and gusty winds across much of the Carolinas. At Weatherstem’s Raleigh station at NC State, data shows the long duration of elevated winds and rainfall.
Looking Ahead to 2026
It is still too early to provide specifics for the 2026 hurricane season, but early indicators suggest El Niño may develop in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño conditions typically increase wind shear across the Atlantic, which can reduce overall hurricane activity. The 2015 season is a good example of this pattern. However, even during El Niño years, indirect impacts can still be significant. In 2015, moisture associated with Hurricane Joaquin led to widespread and severe flooding across South Carolina, reinforcing the idea that reduced storm counts do not eliminate regional risk.
Extreme Heat: The Weather Hazard We Can’t Ignore
Tropical weather often dominates headlines — hurricanes, tropical storms, flooding rains. But statistically, heat is responsible for more weather-related fatalities each year than any other hazard. When people think of “extreme weather,” they often picture high winds or heavy rain. But temperature extremes are just as dramatic and just as dangerous.
Take North Carolina, for example. The state has experienced a temperature span of more than 140 degrees between its record highs and lows. That’s an enormous range. And North Carolina isn’t alone — the other three states in the region show similar extremes.
You can explore this data yourself at weatherstem.com/learn. The site is free and offers more than 175 learning modules for classrooms or personal enrichment. Beyond state climate data, you’ll find modules on hurricanes, weather and air quality, and even weather and maple syrup production. It’s an incredible resource worth checking out.
A Recent Example of Extreme Heat
Last year, from June 23–25, intense heat impacted events at UVA Stadium. Conditions like these create serious health risks for athletes, staff, and spectators alike. Temperatures sored over 100° 3 days in a row and the heat index was even higher:
This is where an important distinction comes in. When we talk about extreme heat, we’re not just talking about the number on a thermometer. That’s where Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) becomes essential.
WBGT is a heat-stress index that combines:
- Air temperature
- Humidity
- Sunlight
- Wind speed
Together, these factors determine how heat actually affects the human body.
WBGT is widely used to guide safety decisions for:
- Athletic practices and competitions
- Outdoor workers
- School recess and activities
- Community events
Because when humidity is high and wind is low, the body can’t cool itself efficiently, even if the air temperature alone doesn’t seem extreme. During that same heat wave, Elizabeth Davis Middle School experienced similar dangerous conditions, demonstrated by the WBGT values below.
Weatherstem Operational Support Beyond the Forecast
We at Weatherstem will continue to expand our services in this volatile weather region. This includes with operational support that can provide pre-storm briefings and advice to keep your facility ahead of the weather. You can read more about these services here. In addition, we introduced our latest product, Bright, earlier this year and are excited to see it implemented in emergency management situations.
If you feel your organization could benefit from any of our services, reach out today.