There has been some severe weather this year and we are currently running above average for tornadoes. However, it’s been a relatively quiet period the past couple of weeks which you can see depicted in the red trend line below:
That is going to change this week and especially this weekend into next week. There will be a daily severe weather threat starting today but the biggest risk will come this weekend and into next week:
Let’s break down the pattern responsible for bringing this active weather.
Much Needed Western Rain and Snow
The big story so far this year has been the extreme heat over the West, where multiple all-time March records were set. In fact, March 2026 was the warmest March on record for the contiguous US. Later this week, an upper-level trough will set up across the West, leading to cooler temperatures, widespread rain, and beneficial mountain snow. Below is the rain forecast through next Monday:
Mountain snow will also fall, but it is likely too late to make up for the meager totals seen so far this year:
Central Severe Threat
The area under the threat for severe storms next week is pretty usual for this time of year. Below is the monthly probability of severe storms for April:
Pieces of energy from the Western trough will rotate into the central US, leading to the increased chance for severe weather:
That energy will tap into warm temperatures and rich moisture being pulled north from the Gulf. Below is an animation of CAPE which is convective available potential energy. Basically, energy available for storm development:
The combination of wind energy and CAPE will lead to the threat of severe storms. Breaking down the threat area day by day, first up is Saturday where Western Texas and Oklahoma are in the bullseye:
Sunday’s area shifts a bit further east and includes parts of south central Kansas and much of the I-35 corridor from Wichita down to San Antonio:
By Monday, a larger threat area will stretch from Northern Texas to parts of the Upper Midwest:
Finally on Tuesday of next week, April 14th, severe weather is possible from St Louis south into Central Texas:
Rain totals will add up with 2-3″ of beneficial rain expected over the region:
Preparing for Severe Weather
Severe weather season is just getting started with the peak months being April – June. Read more at the link below to see how Weatherstem can help keep you and your organization ahead of any severe weather threats: