March 9th: Severe Weather Season is Just Beginning
Over the weekend, several days of severe weather occurred with tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail reported across numerous states. As you can see in the below graph, the number of tornadoes reported through March 8th is running just below average: The most important take away from the above graph is that we are just beginning the most active period for severe weather. This week will bring a few more days of severe weather threats. For emergency managers, staying ahead of severe weather threats is essential to protecting their communities. Monday Night’s Severe Threat Severe thunderstorm watches are already in place as of Monday afternoon and the threat will continue into the overnight hours. You can see from our dashboard that storms have already developed across Northern Mississippi: These storms will continue overnight, bringing a small tornado and damaging wind threat plus the chance for large hail. The general timing is below from 6 pm EST to 2 am EST. If you live in Northern Alabama or Georgia, be sure to have a way to be warned in case severe storms threaten your area. Tuesday’s Severe Threat On Tuesday, a much larger and potential more serious severe threat is shaping up. This threat will extended from the Midwest south to the Southern Plains: For the Southern Plains, there is a tornado threat, but the more significant threat in this region is for damaging wind and hail. Initially, the storms will be discrete supercells with the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. These storms should then evolve into a mostly damaging wind threat. This idea is supported nicely in the below future radar which shows Tue 4pm CST to Wed 6am CST: Across the Midwest, there is a higher chance of tornadoes and destructive hail than there is for damaging winds. The peak time for storms and tornadoes looks to occur in the 4 pm CST to 7 pm CST time frame. The future radar below shows 3 pm CST on Tuesday to 6 am CST on Wednesday: Wednesday’s Severe Threat By Wednesday, the severe threat shifts east into the Ohio Valley and Deep South: These storms will be developing along a potent cold front that will be working its way through this region on Wednesday. All modes of severe weather will be possible including tornadoes. Be sure to monitor the forecast for additional details in the days ahead. Preparing for Severe Weather Emergency managers must make fast, high-stakes decisions when severe weather threatens their communities. With Weatherstem, they can access real-time, site-specific weather data, cameras, and lightning detection tools that provide a clear view of developing conditions. This localized intelligence helps agencies identify hazards sooner, issue timely alerts, and make more confident decisions to protect people and resources. With severe weather season just getting started, it’s not too late to bring Weatherstem to your community, organization, or school. Reach out here to contact us and schedule your consultation today or email us at info@weatherstem.com
Feb 26th: Meteorological Winter Winds Down
The last week of meteorological winter started off with a classic nor’easter that brought heavy snow and strong winds to much of the Northeast: Double-digit snow fell from Philadelphia to New York to Boston. Providence, RI set a new snow storm record at 37.9″: Take a look at the entire storm at our station in Andover, MA where over a foot of snow fell and winds gusted over 50 mph: While meteorological winter is winding down (the last day is Feb 28th) there is still the threat for winter weather in the days to come. March Winter Weather Threats As meteorological spring starts on March 1, there will be the threat of winter weather across the Midwest and Northeast that emergency managers will need to monitor. Below is the probability of 3″ or more of snow from the Euro AI model ending on the afternoon of March 4th: The Euro ensemble has a similar look to the chance for 3″ or more of snow: The GFS wants to bring the highest odds a little farther south but all models have the signal for something next week: The good news is that unlike last week, there’s not a strong signal for a big storm. You can see in the temperature anomalies from March 1 to March 6 that the Northeast is the lone spot in the country that will be below average while the rest of the country warms up: Spring Warmth and Severe Weather As mentioned above, much of the country outside of the Northeast will start to feel like spring. This warm weather could fuel spring storms and rain. You can see in the extended outlook that above average precipitation is becoming more likely across the center of the country: It’s too early to discuss specifics for the potential of severe storms, but this is a sign of the changing seasons. Spring severe weather will continue to ramp up in the weeks to come. You can see what part of the country typically has the highest chance of severe weather below in March: Drought and Spring Wildfire Threat Drought has continued to worsen, especially across Florida and the Southeast. In fact, for the first time since April 2021, all of Florida is in at least moderate drought: There have already been several wildfires across Florida and the outlook for March is for increased fire activity across the Southeast: Read more here about the critical role that real-time weather data plays in wildfire response. While some beneficial rain will fall across Florida this weekend, it won’t be nearly enough to eradicate the drought: