Forecasting the Caribbean: Hazards, Key Lessons, and How Weatherstem Helps
The Caribbean is one of the most dynamic and challenging regions in the world to forecast weather. From powerful hurricanes and intense thunderstorms to extreme heat and Saharan dust outbreaks, meteorologists must account for a wide range of hazards that can change rapidly and have significant impacts on communities, tourism, and infrastructure. Drawing from recent hurricane seasons and real observations across the Caribbean using Weatherstem stations, this post explores key forecasting challenges, lessons learned, and how Weatherstem is helping organizations stay ahead of the weather. Why Forecasting the Caribbean Is So Challenging Forecasting weather in the Caribbean requires balancing multiple hazards that often overlap or evolve quickly. Some of the most impactful challenges include: In addition, limited surface observations across the region can hinder forecast accuracy and timely decision making. Each of these factors plays a role in shaping daily operations and long-term planning across the region. Hurricanes and the Caribbean: Recent Lessons 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Wrap-Up Overall, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was slightly above average: The most interesting stat was that even though only five hurricanes developed, 4 of them became major hurricanes. Among these, 3 became Category 5 hurricanes, the strongest possible category. Despite the activity across the Atlantic basin, only one storm affected the Caribbean directly, Hurricane Melissa. Yet, that single event underscored how vulnerable the region can be. Hurricane Melissa made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 185 mph and a central pressure of 892 mb on October 28, 2025. It tied Hurricane Dorian (2019) and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the strongest landfalling hurricanes in Atlantic basin history. Melissa was also the strongest storm on record to hit Jamaica. At least 100 deaths have been attributed to the Hurricane with the majority of those in Jamaica. Looking Ahead to the 2026 Hurricane Season While it is still too early for specific forecasts, El Niño conditions are looking more possible heading into the 2026 season. El Niño typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic basin, which can reduce storm formation. A strong comparison year is 2015, which also featured a notable El Niño: That year, only 12 storms developed, with four of those strengthening to hurricane status and two of these making major status. The most notable storm was Hurricane Joaquin that strengthened into a category 4 storms, bringing devastating winds and storm surge to parts of the Bahamas and sinking the cargo ship El Faro, killing all 33 crew members aboard. This shows that even in a below average season, devastating impacts can occur. This verifies the statement that it only takes one storm. Thunderstorms and Lightning Risk Thunderstorms can occur in any month across much of the Caribbean. Lightning remains one of the deadliest weather hazards globally causing an estimated 24,000 deaths each year. Reliable lightning statistics in the Caribbean are limited, but available data highlights the risk. In the density map below, you can see the risk increase from east to west across the region, with places like Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica really standing out: In Jamaica alone, there were 16 lightning-related deaths and 39 injuries between 2005 and 2012. Saharan Dust: A Unique Caribbean Influence Saharan dust is a mass of dry, dusty air that forms over the Sahara Desert. It moves westward across the Atlantic during late spring, summer, and early fall. Key characteristics include: Weatherstem data from St. Croix shows how dust events can significantly reduce solar radiation, impacting visibility, air quality, and even solar energy production. In the image below you can see the stark contrast between the clear blue sky on the July 11th and the hazy sky on July 12th. The solar radiation was reduced by almost 10% due to the Saharan Dust. Extreme Heat and Heat Stress Extreme heat is also an increasing concern across the Caribbean, just like it is across much of the world. In the graphs below courtesy of Climate Central based on San Juan, Puerto Rico data, you can see that each season is seeing an increase in above average temperatures: This increase in temperature is especially brutal when combined with high humidity. One of the most important tools for assessing heat risk is Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). WBGT measures heat stress on the human body by combining: Common WBGT Thresholds WBGT is critical for decision-making in hot and humid climates and should be used to determine how long workers can be outside before needed water breaks. Weatherstem observations from locations like Blue Lagoon Island, the British Virgin Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands show WBGT values rapidly approaching dangerous thresholds in a matter of minutes: Real-World Storm Impacts Across the Caribbean Weatherstem stations have captured critical data during both tropical and non-tropical events, some examples are below. Hurricane Dorian (2019) on Blue Lagoon Island in the Bahamas had peak wind gusts over 60 mph despite not making a direct landfall: Hurricane Fiona brought a peak wind gust of 50 mph to the British Virgin Islands. The time lapse from the Weatherstem station there showed the intense conditions at the time of the peak wind gusts: Hurricane Ernesto produced damaging winds with a peak gust of 59 mph and extreme rainfall rates over 7″ per hour on St Croix: It isn’t just tropical storms and hurricanes that Weatherstem stations help monitor but also general thunderstorms and lightning that can occur any time of year. One example is strong storms that moved through Blue Lagoon Island early on on the morning of February 25, 2025 bringing rain rates as high as 1.4″, a wind gust over 40 mph, and a few lightning strikes: By comparison, this same area had a very stormy day in June 2025. This time, the winds only gusted to 28 mph but the rain rates rose to nearly 6″ per hour and there were literally thousands of lightning strikes: Even the British and US Virgin Islands can have these types of storms outside of the typical rainy season. When