March 1st signaled the start of meteorological spring. Right on schedule, a week of stormy weather is expected across the Central US. There is a threat of severe storms and heavy rain not to mention record warmth. This will also lead to some much needed snow across the interior West. Let’s recap winter and look ahead to an active pattern.
Winter Recap
While much of the Eastern US experienced their coldest winter in over a decade, it was far from record breaking. The West on the other hand, did set records for the warmest winter. The contrast between the two regions is stark:
Locations that had their warmest winter on record include Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Denver, Billings, Phoenix, Albuquerque, and Casper. This record warmth has led to extremely low snowpack water equivalent levels across most basins in the West:
The warm winter and lack of snow will put a strain on water resources this spring and summer and likely lead to an increase in wildfires. There is some good news as we head further into spring. Over the next 10 days, the Western US should get several rounds of mountain snow that will help the low snowpack:
In fact, for many locations in the West, March can be the snowiest month on average.
Severe Storms and Heavy Rain
The threat for severe storms will increase over the next few days. Below are the severe weather outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday – Friday:
These rounds of storms will lead to significant rain over the Central US. The below forecast is Wed AM through Mon AM:
Most of this rain is welcomed as drought has expanded across the region this winter. The threat for severe weather is a good reminder for emergency managers to review their severe weather plans. The season is just beginning.
Record Warmth but Cold Temperatures Not Over
Warm temperatures will spread over much of the Eastern US as we head into the weekend. Below is the 7-day temperature anomaly from Wed Mar 4 to Wed Mar 11:
This will include the chance for widespread record highs and record warm lows. There are over 400 record highs and record warm lows possible. Watch the below animation to see the record potential through Monday:
This is going to cause an explosion of pollen over the Southern US and the budding of plants, flowers, and trees. However, we are far from the threat of freezing temperatures being over. The 7-day anomaly from Mar 11 to Mar 18 shows a return to below-average temperatures which would include the threat of freezing temperatures into the South:
Those with agriculture interests across the region should prepare for the potential of cold weather to return by the middle of March.